Wall Street RegretsThe regret calculator.
NVDA · January 2016

Nvidia, 2016: the trade every gamer saw coming

In early 2016, Nvidia was a graphics-card company with a $15B market cap. Gamers loved it; Wall Street mostly shrugged. Then crypto mining arrived, then AI, and the chip everyone already had in their PC became the most important company in the world.

$1,000 in NVDA at the start of 2016, held to the latest close (2026-08): $270,934 — a 271× multiple. The same $1,000 in the S&P 500: $3,771.

$1,000 in 2016$270,934Total return+26993.4%S&P 500 same span$3,771

The uncomfortable part: none of this required foresight about CUDA or transformers in 2016. It required holding something everyone could already see was getting better, through every correction along the way.

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Every figure is computed from the same historical data the calculators use (see methodology). Not financial advice.